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Cake day: May 11th, 2026

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  • I guess this is countered by Ukraine repeatedly hitting their refineries

    Here’s an infographic dated May 8th. The oil barrel in the bottom left shows the theoretical maximum impact of strikes if they somehow took all refineries they hit offline completely.

    Ukraine is pretty good at targeting the right units when they hit a refinery, but it’s not perfect. Either way looking at economic output sources Russia made half as much money from oil last year as 2022, and the refinery strikes are picking up speed. Tuapse was a giant hit to them. Ukraine hit it 5 times in a row… Most of Russia’s biggest oil refineries feeding Europe have been hit repeatedly by long range drones.

    Edit: clarity and structure.



  • If you read my sources (and my previous comments, “as per my last email”) a lot of these biases and headwinds disappear with education. As stupid as it sounds, just running an ad going “a black female candidate can garner just as much political support as a white male candidate” can have a strong effect in her campaign.

    The core disagreement I think we’re having is whether or not this should even be identified as an issue. I believe it should be as per my previous comments.

    as far as I can tell, you don’t think it’s an issue and shouldn’t be contented in an election


  • Yeah you’re right it’s not an issue that needs to be identified and educated to the general population. We’ll just run a candidate again and act surprised when she loses despite the polling we’re getting saying she’s going to win…

    If you won’t accept Standford as a source tell me in advance what sources you accept and I bet I can find studies from that institution as well supporting my argument…

    Edit:

    This feels like:

    “Here are sources proving people don’t change their mind when presented with sources to foundationally back up a claim they don’t agree with”

    “I don’t believe that”



  • They are a big issue. It’s one of the biggest influences on a political campaign for president by a black woman candidate. I’m going to copy paste from my other comment below

    Here’s an article on what I’m talking about

    When voters are presented with evidence showing that women political candidates garner just as much support as men in U.S. general elections, voters’ intentions to support women presidential candidates increased by about 3 percentage points, the researchers’ data showed

    If they aren’t shown and it’s normalized that a candidate can garner just as much political support then it’s a headwind…

    There’s also the belief I’m talking about where people say a woman can’t win, which becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. It also comes down to advertising and education (which are hamstrung by mudslinging during elections)

    There are a lot of studies like this. I could go on for quite a while.

    There’s also a double bind racial bias where black female candidates are viewed as highly competent but unsuitable for a general election.

    We theorize that one driving force is a paradox among Democratic primary voters: namely, that Black women are seen both as more liberal and less electable. Using two different survey experiments, we show that, while most Democratic primary candidates benefit from perceptions of being more liberal, this cannot be said for Black women due to beliefs that they are less likely to win in the general election.

    These issues need to be:

    A) recognized as real.

    B) dealt with through education and normalization.

    Ironically your style of comment is undermining A and B by saying none of this is real, and shutting down any conversation about potentially fixing it…

    Edit: grammar


  • Here’s an article on what I’m talking about

    When voters are presented with evidence showing that women political candidates garner just as much support as men in U.S. general elections, voters’ intentions to support women presidential candidates increased by about 3 percentage points, the researchers’ data showed

    If they aren’t shown and it’s normalized that a candidate can garner just as much political support then it’s a headwind…

    There’s also the belief I’m talking about where people say a woman can’t win, which becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. It also comes down to advertising and education (which are hamstrung by mudslinging during elections)

    There are a lot of studies like this. I could go on for quite a while.

    There’s also a double bind racial bias where black female candidates are viewed as highly competent but unsuitable for a general election.

    We theorize that one driving force is a paradox among Democratic primary voters: namely, that Black women are seen both as more liberal and less electable. Using two different survey experiments, we show that, while most Democratic primary candidates benefit from perceptions of being more liberal, this cannot be said for Black women due to beliefs that they are less likely to win in the general election.

    These issues need to be:

    A) recognized as real.

    B) dealt with through education and normalization.

    Ironically your style of comment is undermining A and B by saying none of this is real, and shutting down any conversation about potentially fixing it…



  • I don’t believe this either. Her polling was dead wrong up until the last minute, same with trump but the warning signs were there early. I don’t think it was reflecting reality so it’s a bad measuring stick for the situation. Also, don’t shoot the messenger here I’m not supporting this but it’s an important aspect of why she lost even if you disagree with me…

    Edit: I’m going to copy one of my other comments with sources below to support my argument, and why this should be brought up and identified.

    Here’s an article on what I’m talking about

    When voters are presented with evidence showing that women political candidates garner just as much support as men in U.S. general elections, voters’ intentions to support women presidential candidates increased by about 3 percentage points, the researchers’ data showed

    If they aren’t shown and it’s normalized that a candidate can garner just as much political support then it’s a headwind…

    There’s also the belief I’m talking about where people say a woman can’t win, which becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. It also comes down to advertising and education (which are hamstrung by mudslinging during elections)

    There are a lot of studies like this. I could go on for quite a while.

    There’s also a double bind racial bias where black female candidates are viewed as highly competent but unsuitable for a general election.

    We theorize that one driving force is a paradox among Democratic primary voters: namely, that Black women are seen both as more liberal and less electable. Using two different survey experiments, we show that, while most Democratic primary candidates benefit from perceptions of being more liberal, this cannot be said for Black women due to beliefs that they are less likely to win in the general election.

    These issues need to be:

    A) recognized as real.

    B) dealt with through education and normalization.

    Ironically your style of comment is undermining A and B by saying none of this is real, and shutting down any conversation about potentially fixing it…