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7 days agothe naive extrapolation implies superintelligence within a year
This is sort of like looking at Moore’s Law and saying the computer will gain sentience because look at this graph.
If AGI happens it’s not going to be because they were doing more of the same but better.
Mathematical proof (that a high school dropout can follow) of just how deranged the idea of continuous growth is.
What’s shocking is just how far our mathematically illiterate intuitions are from the implications, like:
Half of all of the resources that are ever available are consumed in the final doubling period.
Continuous growth at any rate leads to a catastrophically sudden collapse in the resources that feed that growth.
A petri dish is empty at 11:00, a single bacteria splits once per minute, the dish is full at 12:00.
At what time was the dish half full? 11:59.
If you were a bacteria in this experiment, at what time would you start to notice you’re running out of space?